Powerful stuff — since February 28, things have simply been going “great.” After the start of the Iran war, input prices started moving, and as of today, March 22, there are no signs of things calming down. Nitrogen fertilizers, if they are available at all, are trading around the €500/t mark, and fuel is somewhere around €1/l excluding VAT. At the same time, grain prices have only seen a cosmetic increase.
Even before this “great and beautiful” conflict began, it was questionable whether and which spring crop was worth sowing at all — today, margins are certainly even thinner.
Let’s take today’s prices, make the tables, and figure out what to sow and with what yield expectation in order to make a profit.
The main inputs are as follows
- NPK 10-26-26 – 599 €/t
- Nitrogen fertilizer YaraBela Axan – 490 €/t
- Fuel – 1 €/l
Note — purchased seed reduces profitability quite significantly. Due to the low grain price, purchased seed has to deliver as much as 0.5 t/ha more yield.
These tables use quite a high fixed-cost rate. Considering what has happened in agriculture over the last three years, €500/ha is rather typical. High fixed costs kill profitability like crazy, and everyone who has managed to keep them, for example, 2x lower can still cope when yields are average.
By the way — for example, a grain price increase of €30/t would basically solve the problem of high fixed costs as well. See the end.
Spring barley
A few years ago I promised that I would never grow spring barley again. But what does Excel show?
Assumptions for the calculation
- Barley price – 180 €/t
- Seed – 90 €/ha
- To produce 1 t of yield, barley needs 20 kg N, 5 kg P, 10 kg K
Crop protection according to yield expectation
- 3-4 t/ha – herbicide (10 €/ha)
- 5-6 t/ha – herbicide (10 €/ha) + fungicide (single active ingredient 11 €/ha)
- 7-8 t/ha – herbicide (10 €/ha) + 2 multi-active fungicides (20 €/ha + 25 €/ha)
Growth regulators and micronutrients can also be added to the crop protection program, but if handled sensibly their cost is fairly marginal — so I left them out.
Technology and logistics
- Tillage is minimized – 2x discing + sowing
- Fuel consumption: 2x cultivation = 12 l/ha + sowing 7 l/ha + fertilizer spreading and spraying 1 l/ha + harvesting 15 l/ha
- I calculate fuel at 1 €/l – about 40 €/ha in total
- I buy drying as a service – 20 €/t
- Transport 100 km – about 10 €/t
| Yield t/ha | Sales €/ha | Fertilizer €/ha | Crop protection €/ha | Seed €/ha | Fuel €/ha | Drying €/ha | Transport €/ha | Total €/ha | Gross €/ha | Fixed costs €/ha | Net €/ha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 540 | 164. | 10 | 90 | 40 | 60 | 30 | 394 | 145 | 500 | -354 |
| 4 | 720 | 218 | 10 | 90 | 40 | 80 | 40 | 478 | 241 | 500 | -25 |
| 5 | 900 | 273 | 21 | 90 | 40 | 100 | 50 | 574 | 325 | 500 | -174 |
| 6 | 1080 | 328 | 21 | 90 | 40 | 120 | 60 | 659 | 420 | 500 | -79 |
| 7 | 1260 | 382 | 55 | 90 | 40 | 140 | 70 | 777 | 482 | 500 | -17 |
| 8 | 1440 | 437 | 55 | 90 | 40 | 160 | 80 | 862 | 577 | 500 | 77 |
Net profit is calculated without subsidies.
Decision – if you have lower fixed costs (loans, leases, repair costs, etc.), then it may have potential. But if you have a lot of rented land and high fixed costs, then getting to break-even with spring barley means over 7 t/ha, which is more fantasy than reality.
Not recommended.
Oats?
Food oats currently cost about 158 €/t. Growing oats is similar to barley, but it can be done with lower variable costs; however, even if we take, for example, 100 €/ha off the variable costs per hectare, the table still looks like this:
| Yield t/ha | Sales revenue €/ha | Fertilizer €/ha | Crop protection €/ha | Seed €/ha | Fuel+work €/ha | Drying €/ha | Transport €/ha | Variable costs €/ha | Gross profit €/ha | Fixed costs €/ha | Net profit €/ha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 474 | 110 | 6 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 30 | 307 | 166 | 500 | -333 |
| 4 | 632 | 146 | 6 | 60 | 40 | 80 | 40 | 373 | 258 | 500 | -241 |
| 5 | 790 | 202 | 15 | 66 | 40 | 100 | 50 | 474 | 315 | 500 | -184 |
| 6 | 948 | 241 | 15 | 66 | 40 | 120 | 60 | 542 | 405 | 500 | -94 |
| 7 | 1106 | 291 | 41 | 72 | 40 | 140 | 70 | 655 | 451 | 500 | -49 |
| 8 | 1264 | 331 | 41 | 71 | 40 | 160 | 80 | 724 | 539 | 500 | 39 |
Decision – still just as bad as spring barley… Not recommended!
Spring wheat
Spring wheat has been something I’ve been even more afraid to grow than spring barley — out of fear that higher growing costs and sensitivity to drought would make it an even worse choice.
I used essentially the same inputs as for barley, with a few small exceptions.
- Spring wheat price (Category III food wheat) – 200 €/t
- To produce 1 t of yield, wheat needs 25 kg N, 5 kg P, 12 kg K
| Yield t/ha | Sales revenue €/ha | Variable costs €/ha | Gross profit €/ha | Fixed costs €/ha | Net profit €/ha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 600 | 432.27 | 167.73 | 500 | -332.27 |
| 4 | 800 | 526.03 | 273.97 | 500 | -226.03 |
| 5 | 1000 | 644.79 | 355.21 | 500 | -144.79 |
| 6 | 1200 | 738.54 | 461.46 | 500 | -38.54 |
| 7 | 1400 | 841.30 | 558.70 | 500 | 58.70 |
| 8 | 1600 | 935.06 | 664.94 | 500 | 164.94 |
Net profit is calculated without subsidies.
Decision – the price of spring wheat is better, and although growing costs are higher, the break-even point is reached at around 6.5 t/ha, which is slightly better than spring barley. But that does not mean it is much more sensible than spring barley or oats.
If choosing between spring barley and spring wheat, I would rather go with spring wheat — there is a chance of making food-grade wheat and achieving better profitability at a lower yield level.
Peas and beans
In 2025, I got completely fed up with that soil-eating struggle with the combine, and the decision is that in 2026 I will not grow peas. Harvesting beans was fairly easy, but a late-September harvest and the fear that winter crops may not get sown in time increase the risk.
Let’s make the same Excel for both, I’ll take average inputs for growing them, and we’ll draw some conclusions.
Assumptions for the calculation
- Yellow pea and food bean price – 230 €/t
- To produce 1 t of yield, peas/beans need 10 kg N, 4 kg P, 10 kg K
- Seed costs about 120 €/ha
Crop protection
- Herbicide – 60 €/ha
- Insecticide – 15 €/ha
- Fungicide – 20 €/ha
These are average values for both crops. In theory, peas do not need quite that much, but there are different technologies.
Technology and logistics
- Tillage – 2x discing + sowing (it can also be done with 1x stubble cultivator)
- Total fuel cost ~40 €/ha
- Drying – 40 €/t
- Transport 100 km – about 10 €/t
| Yield t/ha | Sales revenue €/ha | Variable costs €/ha | Gross profit €/ha | Fixed costs €/ha | Net profit €/ha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 460 | 397.20 | 62.80 | 500 | -437.20 |
| 3 | 690 | 468.30 | 221.70 | 500 | -278.30 |
| 4 | 920 | 539.40 | 380.60 | 500 | -119.40 |
| 5 | 1150 | 610.50 | 539.50 | 500 | 39.50 |
| 6 | 1380 | 681.60 | 698.40 | 500 | 198.40 |
Net profit is calculated without subsidies.
Decision – with peas, the situation is fairly hopeless. Even with fixed costs 2x lower, there is still a loss at 3 t/ha. How often have you harvested at least 3 t/ha over the last 5 years? I have done it about once.
Getting beans above 4 t/ha is quite rare, but harvesting peas off the ground at, at best, 2 t/ha is quite common.
Recommendation – sow beans. If you have low fixed costs, then grow clover or beans.
Some say just establish clover and problem solved. But if your fixed costs are that high, then even growing only clover and taking support payments still results in about a €320/ha loss. At 3 t/ha of beans, it is -278 €/ha. The risks are lower with clover, but with high fixed costs you need to keep turnover going.
Summary
As was to be expected, growing spring crops is more or less guaranteed to end in the red. This is driven mainly by fertilizer prices and, to a lesser extent, fuel. Grain prices simply have not kept up.
For example, if nitrogen fertilizer cost what it used to, around 365 €/t, spring wheat would already be profitable at 6 t/ha and barley at 6.5 t/ha. But if fertilizer prices stay the same and the grain price rises — for example, wheat to 230 €/t and barley to 210 €/t — then spring barley would already be in profit at around 5.2 t/ha and spring wheat at 5 t/ha.
What is needed is about a 15% increase in grain price — which is significantly less than input prices have risen.
Main message – at the moment, fixed costs and yield are what determine the game. If those do not line up, Excel is not very forgiving.
